Samsung and SSG win many close games
Coach Jinman Park encouraging players
In professional baseball, there is a formula for calculating a team’s winning percentage excluding luck.
This is the ‘Pythagorian expected win rate’ (ideal expected win rate) invented by sabermetrics master Bill James.
The expected win rate is calculated using the formula ‘score²÷(score²+runs conceded²)’, which calculates the expected performance based on the pitching and batting power.
A team whose actual win rate is higher than the expected win rate means that they have enjoyed a lot of luck compared to their strength or have won many games with a narrow score margin.
The expected win rate is also meaningful in that it can predict future performance to some extent.
As of the 17th, the KBO League’s actual win rate and expected win rate show similar trends.
The KIA Tigers, LG Twins, and Doosan Bears, which are ranked 1st to 3rd in expected winning percentage, are also ranked 1st to 3rd in actual winning percentage.
The three teams are currently performing as well as they could without any good or bad luck.
Hanwha Eagles in 6th place in expected winning percentage, Lotte Giants in 7th place, KT Wiz in 9th place, and Kiwoom Heroes in 10th place are also ranked 7th to 10th in actual winning percentage.
The teams that show a large difference between actual performance and expected winning percentage are Samsung Lions, SSG Landers, and NC Dinos.
Samsung has an actual winning percentage (0.551, 4th place) that is much higher than the expected winning percentage (0.497, 5th place) this season.
The reason Samsung’s actual winning rate is high is because it has won many close games.
Samsung won 22 games (0.595) out of 37 games played within a 3-point gap this season. 카지노사이트
Although the team’s score per game (4.94 points, 9th place) is low, key bullpen pitchers such as Lim Chang-min, Kim Jae-yoon, and Oh Seung-hwan have endured and have accumulated more wins than expected.
However, it can be interpreted that if the bullpen collapses, the team’s performance in the future may converge to the expected win rate.
SSG, which ranks 5th in the actual rankings, also has a large difference between its team winning percentage (0.522) and expected winning percentage (0.469).
SSG ranks last in runs allowed per inning (0.623, 9th place) and scores per game (5.19 points, 7th place).
However, SSG achieved more wins than expected by showing a high level of concentration in close games, recording a whopping 7 wins, 1 loss, and a winning percentage of 0.875 (1st place) in the 8 one-point games played this season.
SSG veteran reliever Noh Kyung-eun pitched in 5 of the 7 games won by 1 run and performed brilliantly in close games, not giving up a single run.
NC’s actual winning percentage (0.500, 6th place) is lower than the expected winning percentage (0.516, 4th place).
A high expected win rate can be taken as a sign of hope that the current team strength is not bad and that more wins will be possible in the future.
Hanwha, Lotte, KT, and Kiwoom, which are in the bottom tier, all have higher expected winning rates than actual winning rates.
Since there is not a large gap with the top 5 teams, there is ample opportunity for a rebound. 안전 슬롯사이트